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The reprieve following the end of fighting in Gaza is immense. Across Israel, the liberation of surviving detainees has resulted in broad celebration. Across Palestinian territories, jubilations have commenced as up to 2,000 Palestinian detainees start to be released – though anguish persists due to doubt about which prisoners are returning and their destinations. Across northern Gaza, residents can finally return to search the debris for the remnants of an estimated 10,000 unaccounted-for individuals.

Ceasefire Emergence Despite Earlier Odds

Just three weeks ago, the likelihood of a ceasefire looked improbable. But it has taken effect, and on Monday Donald Trump journeyed from Jerusalem, where he was hailed in the Knesset, to Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt. There, he joined a high-level peace conference of in excess of 20 world leaders, featuring Sir Keir Starmer. The plan for peace initiated there is set to advance at a conference in the UK. The US president, cooperating with international partners, did make this deal come to fruition – contrary to, not because of, Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Aspirations for Sovereignty Moderated by Previous Experiences

Expectations that the deal signifies the first step toward Palestinian statehood are comprehensible – but, considering historical precedent, rather hopeful. It lacks a transparent trajectory to independence for Palestinians and threatens dividing, for the near term, Gaza from the West Bank. Furthermore the total ruin this war has caused. The lack of any timeline for Palestinian autonomy in the presidential proposal undermines self-aggrandizing references, in his Knesset speech, to the “monumental start” of a “golden age”.

The US president could not help himself sowing division and personalising the deal in his speech.

In a moment of respite – with the freeing of captives, truce and resumption of aid – he chose to recast it as a ethical drama in which he solely reinstated Israel’s honor after supposed betrayal by former US presidents Obama and Biden. This despite the Biden administration twelve months prior having attempted a analogous arrangement: a ceasefire linked to relief entry and eventual diplomatic discussions.

Genuine Autonomy Crucial for Sustainable Agreement

A initiative that refuses one side genuine autonomy is incapable of delivering legitimate peace. The ceasefire and aid trucks are to be welcomed. But this is still not political progress. Without systems ensuring Palestinian participation and authority over their own institutions, any deal risks cementing oppression under the language of peace.

Relief Imperatives and Rebuilding Obstacles

Gaza’s people desperately need humanitarian aid – and sustenance and pharmaceuticals must be the first priority. But restoration cannot wait. Within 60 million tonnes of wreckage, Palestinians need help reconstructing residences, learning institutions, healthcare facilities, mosques and other institutions devastated by Israel’s invasion. For Gaza’s provisional leadership to prosper, funding must arrive promptly and protection voids be addressed.

Comparable with a large portion of Donald Trump's diplomatic proposal, allusions to an international stabilisation force and a suggested “board of peace” are alarmingly vague.

Worldwide Endorsement and Prospective Outcomes

Robust international support for the Palestinian Authority, enabling it to succeed Hamas, is likely the most hopeful possibility. The immense hardship of the recent period means the ethical argument for a settlement to the conflict is possibly more urgent than ever. But even as the ceasefire, the homecoming of the captives and pledge by Hamas to “disarm” Gaza should be acknowledged as favorable developments, Donald Trump's history offers minimal cause to trust he will fulfill – or consider himself obligated to endeavor. Short-term relief should not be interpreted as that the prospect of a Palestinian state has been advanced.